It’s one of crypto’s most captivating stories:
“If you had bought Bitcoin in 2013, you’d be a millionaire today!”
True. But that’s only half the story.
The real question is:
How many people who bought Bitcoin back in 2013 actually still hold it today, in 2025?
Let’s unpack the math, psychology, and actual blockchain data to find out just how rare that kind of diamond-handed holding really is.
Then vs. Now: The Price Shift
In 2013, Bitcoin’s price ranged between $13 and $1,000. It was a wild, speculative asset used mostly by tech nerds, libertarians, or curious early adopters.
Fast forward to August 2025, and Bitcoin has exploded to over $116,900. That’s nearly a 100x gain from its 2013 highs.
But that rise came with years of violent market swings, regulatory uncertainty, and emotional exhaustion, factors that caused many early buyers to sell or disappear.
What Does the Blockchain Say?
We now have concrete on-chain data to support this analysis:
Dormant Coins (Over 10 Years Old)
- As of 2025, over 1.8 million BTC have been completely dormant for more than 10 years (source: Chainalysis & Glassnode).
- That’s nearly 9% of total Bitcoin supply.
This includes coins that have not moved since 2013 or earlier.
But here’s the kicker: many of those coins might not be held intentionally, they’re likely lost.
The Psychology of HODLing
Before we jump into the math, let’s talk emotions.
Holding BTC from 2013 to 2025 isn’t just about belief, it means surviving:
- Fear when prices crash 80%+
- Greed when prices spike 20x
- Uncertainty during regulatory attacks
- And even technical risks like lost passwords or broken wallets
Let’s break down the three filters every 2013 buyer had to pass through:
1. Fear: Not Selling During Crashes
Bitcoin crashed many times.
Let’s estimate that only 25% of early buyers held strong during those dark days.
2. Greed: Not Taking Profit During Bull Runs
Most people can’t resist cashing out at 10x or 50x gains.
We assume only 30% of those who passed the fear test resisted profit-taking.
3. Access: Still Have the Wallet/Keys
Lots of early BTC is lost, hard drives crashed, wallets forgotten, keys lost.
We assume 80% of survivors still have access.
Updated Math: Probability of Still Holding BTC Since 2013
Let’s put it all together with this refined formula:
P(Still Holding)=Pfear×Pgreed×Paccess
Using the values:
P=0.25×0.30×0.80=0.06
So, the estimated probability that someone who bought Bitcoin in 2013 is still holding it in 2025 is around 6%.
Cross-Checking with Blockchain Data
Does our estimate make sense?
- There are ~1.8 million BTC unmoved in over 10 years
- At that time, only about 12 million BTC had been mined
- That means 15% of early BTC remains dormant
However, many of those coins are believed to be lost, not actively held.
If we assume around half are truly held by intentional long-term holders, that’s roughly:
0.5×1.8 million=900,000 BTC
Out of 12 million BTC mined by 2013, that’s about 7.5%, which aligns closely with our 6% probability.
Analogy: Holding Bitcoin is Like Crossing a Lava Field in Flip-Flops
Imagine this:
You start walking barefoot across a volcanic field in 2013.
- You step on fire (crashes)
- There are gold coins on the ground (bull markets), tempting you to stop
- Some people fall off cliffs (lost wallets)
- Others get scared and turn back (panic-sellers)
Only a few make it across to 2025, and they’re the ones still holding BTC today.
So..
If you’re wondering how many people actually HODL from the early days, the answer is:
Only about 6 out of every 100 early buyers are likely still holding their Bitcoin from 2013.
They’ve survived emotional panic, massive gains, and digital risks, all for the chance to be part of something bigger than money.
What’s your take on this? Share your thoughts in the comments – I’d love to hear your perspective.
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